Iran Could Be Turning Point

On October 1, the United States will convene with Iran and several other world powers to hold comprehensive talks concerning Iran’s development as a nation state.  The most pressing issue for the United States is the development of Iran’s nuclear program, though Iran has not openly stated they plan on this topic being a part of the discussion.

These discussions, similar in style to the six-party talks involving North Korea, could be a major turning point in American foreign policy.  Success would be an affirmation that the U.S. still has a significant amount of power on the world stage.  Failure, however, could cause Iran to become another “rogue state” or to ally themselves with rival powers Russia or China.

How will we know if our efforts have been successful?  Our ambitions should not be too high.  For starters, it is crucial to uncover the current state of the Iranian nuclear program and what capacity it has to grow.  Beyond that our ambitions should be slim.  Expecting the complete removal of the program is unrealistic and will only set the U.S. up for failure.

Imperative to our success is the cooperation of China and Russia in applying pressure on Iran to divulge reports about their program.  If either one relents, Iran would have the option of simply refusing and asking for their protection.  This would make Iran even more dangerous and create doubts about the ability of America to control smaller countries (not to mention fears that another great power is threatening American supremacy).

If the U.S. emerges from these discussions with insufficient information doubts will immediately emerge about America’s status as a world power.  Though nothing in the world changes over night, failure to have proper diplomatic relations with Iran could be the first move towards a changing of the guard in superpower status (unless you consider fighting an unnecessary and unapproved war in Iraq was the first step).  America doesn’t need to recognize Iran as an official nuclear state, but the U.S. should be aware that Iran will not easily give up their rights to such a program, if they intend to give them up at all.

In all likelihood, the best course of action will be peaceful cooperation between the U.S., Russia, and China with Iran to secure the future of the Middle East.  Iran’s program doesn’t need to be disabled, but it does need to be safeguarded against offensive nuclear proliferation.  An Iran that is ready to be a major player in the Middle East while cooperating with the world superpowers would significantly increase the effectiveness of all U.S. and U.N. operations in the region.

Demosthenes