Benign Power?
This week, I had no choice but to witness the great development China has undergone in the last six decades as all of the free TV stations in Hong Kong were doing their patriotic duty by showing the same shared feed of the massive Beijing parade. Such a show of military might had not been seen in two decades, and celebrations in Hong Kong corresponded to those in Beijing with fireworks, parades and live concerts. For those who did not wish to venture too far from home, theatres were showing a cinematic hagiographic story of the years between the end of WWII and the defeat of the nationalists.
As is China’s preferred modus operandi, everything was carefully rehearsed to project a perfect, automaton image of power to their people. Western observers were not interested in seeing China’s nuclear missile launchers, tanks or astronauts paraded before sweating men and women dressed in ethnic minority costume. The purpose of the parade and the rest of the 60th anniversary festivities is internally focused. The production is handcrafted for the people of the PRC to feel pride for their country and gratitude toward their leaders.
While the main message may have been crafted for the domestic audience, the international world is certainly aware of what’s taking place, even if they did not tune-in to CCTV. The question is, as it has been for the last 5 years or so, what will be the response of the US, as the world’s only superpower, to the emerging Chinese hegemony. Not long after the Beijing Olympics, master satirists Matt Stone and Trey Parker of South Park suggested an answer through an episode where Cartman has nightmares of the Chinese taking over the world after watching the massive coordinated opening ceremonies. From a publishing standpoint, new books about China’s growing global role appear on bookstore shelves like weeds in a sidewalk.
But what about Obama? After all, his opinion matters most when it comes to the tenor of US-Sino relations in the next 3 (possibly 7) years. His approach since taking office has been deliberate and largely effective. Obama’s message to the Chinese is clear: keep paying our bills. Under the dual management of Hillary Clinton and Timothy Geithner, Barack Obama has sought to forge positive ties with China because, as the single largest holder of US national debt, Obama needs to China to continue to fund his domestic agenda. Expanding government’s role in healthcare and finance means maintaining or increasing both short and long term budget deficits, but with oil prices low and Japanese exports lagging, only the Chinese are in position to feed the rapacious American appetite for public debt. Obama’s one, rather notable lapse, was the foolish imposition of tariffs on Chinese tires, but this was nothing more than a domestically weak president repaying a campaign favor – a feat we will hopefully not see more of.
So what of it? As I watched the long range mobile ICBM launchers roll through Tiananmen Square, I distinctly remember the narrator remarking on China’s commitment to only use its nuclear arsenal as a deterrent and never as a first strike weapon. If, as the narrator said, China is only concerned about domestic economic growth and international respect, why should Obama or any other world leader be concerned about China’s rapidly increasing global stature?
Let there be no mistake, Obama and the rest of the G20 choose now how they will interact with a stronger, more successful China for the remainder of this century. Like many of its peers, the current US administration has taken a short-sighted view of China as merely a benign lender. The Obama administration would do well to begin thinking seriously about ways to unwind the massive debt owed to China. It only took four decades of the last century for the US to become a global superpower and China is betting it can do the same just as fast.
The important thing for President Obama to realize is that four decades does not mean forty years from now; you see, the Chinese have already started counting.
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