In a forum in Beijing today, Cinese Premier Wen Jiabao spoke against protectionism blah blah blah. The major point to take home, however, is China will see its first trade deficit since 2004 in March, of about USD 8bn.
What does this mean, besides any implication on the currency debate? Well, ever since the beginning of this Great Recession (or GD2, as I would prefer to call it) Chinese exports have been a leading indicator of US consumption. So could this dramatic deficits foretell something more sinister, like a double dip? One month does not a trend make, of course, but this does raise serious alarm, especially in light with all this crazy talk of an official end to recession.
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